Money Talks, BCS Walks

Today's question: If Alabama is No. 1 in the Bowl Championship Series standings, why are the Crimson Tide a 10-point underdog to No. 4 Florida?

The BCS' stated goal is "to match the two top-rated teams in a national championship game and to create exciting and competitive matchups between eight other highly regarded teams in four other games."

Bull, we say, and here's the evidence to back it up: A study by Cornell student Max Wasserman that was published in May by the Big Lead.

Wasserman compared the margin of victory of the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar and Orange bowls from the past 30 seasons, the last 10 of which have been under the BCS system. Outside of the Fiesta Bowl, the average margin of victory has increased by at least two points in the 10 years under the BCS.

No wonder TV ratings for four of the five BCS games showed a sharp decline in 2008. The Sugar Bowl experienced a drop of 25%, followed by the Rose (20%), BCS title (17%) and Fiesta (8%). Only the Orange Bowl saw a slight increase (6%) in viewership.

That's right, the BCS makes a regular habit of picking the wrong teams for the wrong games.

The solution is a playoff free of politics, and we have a sure way to take politics out of the equation. Let the sportsbooks in Las Vegas pick the teams and matchups. Check out the top 30 from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a true representation of where teams should be in the BCS standings.

Yes, put a little scratch on the line and opinions quickly change. Who wouldn't want to see Jeff Sagarin put 20 large on a team based on his computer rankings? Harris Interactive voters would suddenly remember that Penn State has lost a game.

When money is on the line, people suddenly think with a clear mind. That's why Florida is a 10-point favorite.

Comments

[SAETrojan]

What I have literally been calling for the past couple years. Best post to date Wiz

[Bill R.]

"the top 30 from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a true representation of where teams should be in the BCS standings"

So what makes the LVSC more "right" than other rankings? If your argument is that it's the money then your argument has a big flaw - sports betting isn't about who the casinos & bookies think will win, it's about who the casinos & bookies think the betting public thinks will win.

That's why USC always has huge spreads to cover. It's not because the casinos & bookies think they're so great, it's because the betting public thinks they're so great. Casinos make a profit by getting as much money towards the center as possible - the goal is to get 50% of the people betting one way, and 50% betting the other. That way they always come out ahead. So when they set the lines & spreads, it's based on their assessment of what the public thinks about teams.

So not only does your plan put the decisions in the hands of a group who's sole purpose is to make money (for themselves, not college football), but they're basing those decisions not on who's best but who they think the betting public thinks is best. No way the NCAA will ever go for such a relationship with Vegas - they've got enough of a hangup about gambling already.

[nixa37]

Seriously, trying to use that "study" by the Cornell student to prove anything shows a complete lack of understanding of statistics. The standard deviations are far to large in such a small sample to be significant or lead to any meaningful conclusions. Even the guy who wrote the paper admitted in the comments that he "wasn't trying to prove anything," though the tone of his paper would lead people to think otherwise.

Basically, you just cited a "study" that doesn't even claim to prove anything as proof that the BCS is worse than the old system. If your goal was to show everyone your ignorance on the subject of statistics and that your blind hatred of the BCS knows no bounds, then well played.

[frank]

"A study by Cornell student Max Wasserman that was published in May by the Big Lead."

You make being published by the Big Lead sound like a significant accompishment, like he went through an editting or peer-review process. That "study", as mentioned by the previous commentor, is utter nonsense. Andy Bernard would be ashamed.

[Seancti]

The Vegas rankings are just based upon gambling and what teams bring the most action. Just because Vegas and most of America think Florida is better than Alabama doesn't make them #1.

My God, your solution is a million times worse than the BCS. Why even play the games? Let's just put USC in the title game even though they keep losing to a team they shouldn't each year.

This is absurd...this is by far the worst post I have ever read on this site. Very, very disappointing.

[Ramblin Jeff]

LVSC apparently thinks, although BC isn't great, they're VERY good... being that they're ranked both 20 and 24. An error like that ruins any confidence I might have had in their consultancy.

[bevo]

I call bull on Max and the Big Lead, and penalize Wiz of Odds 15 yards for using statistics without knowing what in the hell you are talking about.

Too bad your boy Max did not wait until sophomore year at Penn State to conduct his research. By then, he would have learned about 1) a t-test and 2) Excel's plugs in.

I wanted to test two hypotheses.

H1: There is no difference in the bowl results before and after the implementation of the BCS
H2: There is no difference between the BCS game and the I-AA title game.

Using Max's data, I ran a t-test in Excel to test both hypotheses. Guess what? I failed to reject H1 and H2. That is, there is no difference. The implementation of the BCS had no bearing on the competitiveness of the bowl games or the "title game".

Folks, do not just eye ball the means. Run a means test.

[Peter]

Sorry, but what a bunch of trash. Georgia as #10 and Georgia #27?? That, right there, makes this fail the smell test.

Lines have little to do with reality, only with making money.

[D Wils]

Sportsbooks do not try to get 50-50 on all games, that is a total myth that amateur gamblers perpetuate. Sportsbooks try to make money any way they can, not just 5-10% of each wager. If there is an angle to make money by taking 80 percent to a side, the books will take it.
There is no questioning that UF is the best team in the game right now. I don't see any plausible argument to the contrary.
Good post.

[bevo]

D Wils: Houston Nutt has a plausible argument to the contrary as to how an UNRANKED team with LESS talent can walk into BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUM and beat the Gators.