The Wiz of Odds

USC's Loss Is Good News for Boise State

Stanford's 55-21 clubbing of USC ended any hope the Trojans had of extending their seven-year run of appearances in Bowl Championship Series games. The team that is likely to benefit most from USC's fall is Boise State.

The Broncos, who have trailed fellow non-BCS outsider Texas Christian in the standings for several weeks, now appear to have the inside track for one of the two open BCS bids, according to projections by Sam Chi, the BCS Guru.

There are 10 spots available for the BCS games, and six of those go to the champions of the BCS conferences. TCU should get a seventh spot, and the loser of the Florida-Alabama game would get an eighth spot. That would leave three teams — a 13-0 Boise State and two-loss Iowa and Penn State — battling for the final two spots.

If Cincinnati were to lose to Pittsburgh in what is likely to be the Big East title game on Dec. 5, then the Bearcats would fall into the mix for the two open BCS spots.

Plenty of football to be played, and here are the remaining regular-season games for the six unbeaten teams:

Florida: Florida International (Nov. 21); Florida State (Nov. 28).

Alabama: Chattanooga (Nov. 21); at Auburn (Nov. 28).

Texas: Kansas (Nov. 21); at Texas A&M (Nov. 26).

Texas Christian: at Wyoming (Nov. 21); New Mexico (Nov. 28).

Boise State: at Utah State (Nov. 20); Nevada (Nov. 27); New Mexico State (Dec. 5).

Cincinnati: Illinois (Nov. 27); at Pittsburgh (Dec. 5).

Guru: Texas Christian Makes Its Move

Texas Christian is expected to move up to No. 4 in Sunday's Bowl Championship Series standings, according to projections by Sam Chi, the BCS Guru.

Can the Horned Frogs earn a spot in the BCS title game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena? The odds are stacked against TCU, which will trail Florida, Alabama and Texas in the standings.

The Horned Frogs need two of the three teams above them to lose. Florida and Alabama are likely headed to a matchup in the Southeastern Conference title game, and that would mean a loss for one of those teams. Texas is a bigger problem as it has a creampuff schedule the rest of the way.

As it stands, the BCS title game will be a showdown between the Longhorns and winner of the SEC championship game.

Here are the remaining regular-season games for the six unbeaten teams:

Florida: at South Carolina (Nov. 14); Florida International (Nov. 21); Florida State (Nov. 28).

Alabama: at Mississippi State (Nov. 14); Chattanooga (Nov. 21); at Auburn (Nov. 28).

Texas: at Baylor (Nov. 14); Kansas (Nov. 21); at Texas A&M (Nov. 26).

Texas Christian: Utah (Nov. 14); at Wyoming (Nov. 21); New Mexico (Nov. 28).

Boise State: Idaho (Nov. 14); at Utah State (Nov. 20); Nevada (Nov. 27); New Mexico State (Dec. 5).

Cincinnati: West Virginia (Nov. 13); Illinois (Nov. 27); at Pittsburgh (Dec. 5).

BCS Guru: Top Four Hold Their Ground

Florida, Alabama, Texas and Iowa are projected to be the top four teams in this week's Bowl Championship Series standings, according to the BCS Guru.

The official standings will be released Sunday afternoon, but everything went according to form with the exception of Oregon's crushing 47-20 victory over USC. How bad was it? It's the biggest loss for the Trojans in the Pete Carroll era, and it all but eliminated any hope USC had of returning to the Rose Bowl.

The Trojans, No. 5 in last week's standings, will fall out of the BCS top 10.

It's beginning to look like there will be more than two undefeated teams at the end of the regular season. Currently, there are seven, but Florida and Alabama are headed toward a showdown in the Southeastern Conference title game, meaning the list of unbeaten teams will eventually be cut to six.

Here are the remaining regular-season games for the seven undefeated teams:

Florida: Vanderbilt (Nov. 7); at South Carolina (Nov. 14); Florida International (Nov. 21); Florida State (Nov. 28).

Alabama: Louisiana State (Nov. 7); at Mississippi State (Nov. 14); Chattanooga (Nov. 21); at Auburn (Nov. 28).

Texas: Central Florida (Nov. 7); at Baylor (Nov. 14); Kansas (Nov. 21); at Texas A&M (Nov. 26).

Iowa: Northwestern (Nov. 7); at Ohio State (Nov. 14); Minnesota (Nov. 21).

Texas Christian: at San Diego State (Nov. 7); Utah (Nov. 14); at Wyoming (Nov. 21); New Mexico (Nov. 28).

Boise State: at Louisiana Tech (Nov. 6); Idaho (Nov. 14); at Utah State (Nov. 20); Nevada (Nov. 27); New Mexico State (Dec. 5).

Cincinnati: Connecticut (Nov. 7); West Virginia (Nov. 13); Illinois (Nov. 27); at Pittsburgh (Dec. 5).

Guru: It's Florida, Alabama and Texas

Florida, Alabama and Texas will remain in the top three spots when the Bowl Championship Series standings are released on Sunday, according to projections by Sam Chi, the BCS Guru.

Florida and Alabama continue to play like teams that want to lose. Tim Tebow had two passes intercepted and returned for touchdowns in the Gators' 29-19 victory at lowly Mississippi State. Florida has won 17 in a row, tops in the nation.

Alabama needed two blocked field goals by beefy noseguard Terrence Cody to slip past Tennessee, 12-10. The Crimson Tide have one offensive touchdown in the past two games.

Texas had the most impressive performance of the top 3 with a 41-7 crushing of Missouri in Columbia. The Longhorns have a showdown this Saturday at Oklahoma State.

For the complete standings, go to the BCS Guru. To track his accuracy rate, click here.

Guru: Florida and Alabama Hold Top Spots

Florida will be No. 1 and Alabama No. 2 when the Bowl Championship Series standings are released on Sunday, according to projections by Sam Chi, the BCS Guru.

Both teams will be favored in the rest of their regular-season games and should have no trouble advancing to the Southeastern Conference title game.

The Gators' remaining games include pillow fights against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and something called Florida International. The other games are Georgia, South Carolina and Florida State.

If you think Georgia can beat Florida, get real. The Bulldogs have given up 37 or more points in seven of their last 13 games. South Carolina has not beaten a team of any merit and Florida State won't stand a chance in the season finale at Gainesville. No way the Gators lose Tim Tebow's last home game.

Alabama's remaining schedule includes pushovers Tennessee, Mississippi State and Chattanooga. The Crimson Tide also play host to Louisiana State, which has little punch on offense, and finish at Auburn, which is quickly fading into obscurity.

Texas has only one hurdle between it and the BCS title game. That would be a trip to Oklahoma State on Oct. 31. The rest of the schedule is full of creampuffs — Missouri, Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M.

So there you have it. The Florida-Alabama winner plays Texas to become champion of the BCS cartel.

For the complete standings, go to the BCS Guru. To track his accuracy rate, click here.

BCS Guru: Florida and Alabama Pack a 1-2 Punch

The first Bowl Championship Series standings won't be released until Sunday, but the trusty BCS Guru is one play ahead of those jokers with his simulated standings through last week's games.

Only one component — the Peter Wolfe computer ratings — are unavailable at this point. Wolfe releases his first set of standings Sunday.

If the season were to end today, Florida would play Alabama in the BCS title game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena. The Gators and Crimson Tide will likely play first in the Southeastern Conference title game, but already some fools are clamoring for a second matchup in Pasadena. Seriously.

Of course, the SEC was screaming bloody murder at the mere suggestion of Michigan playing Ohio State a second time in 2006. The Buckeyes won the first meeting, 42-39, and a rematch nearly became reality until Florida squeaked past Michigan in the final BCS standings. The Wolverines were then embarrassed by USC, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl, and the Gators whacked the Buckeyes, 41-14, to win the BCS championship. No wonder the Big Ten was lobbying for a rematch.

Seriously, is this a joke of a system or what? The coaches poll, which is one-third of BCS formula, has Oklahoma, with two losses, ranked ahead of one-loss Brigham Young. One of the Sooners' losses came to the Cougars. No wonder the coaches don't want their votes made public.

If things go according to plan, the BCS Guru will be updating his standings each Saturday from here on out, and the Wiz will be posting the results. Be sure to check the Wiz late Saturday night to stay a step ahead of the competition.