The Wiz of Odds

BCS Guru: Florida and Alabama Pack a 1-2 Punch

The first Bowl Championship Series standings won't be released until Sunday, but the trusty BCS Guru is one play ahead of those jokers with his simulated standings through last week's games.

Only one component — the Peter Wolfe computer ratings — are unavailable at this point. Wolfe releases his first set of standings Sunday.

If the season were to end today, Florida would play Alabama in the BCS title game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena. The Gators and Crimson Tide will likely play first in the Southeastern Conference title game, but already some fools are clamoring for a second matchup in Pasadena. Seriously.

Of course, the SEC was screaming bloody murder at the mere suggestion of Michigan playing Ohio State a second time in 2006. The Buckeyes won the first meeting, 42-39, and a rematch nearly became reality until Florida squeaked past Michigan in the final BCS standings. The Wolverines were then embarrassed by USC, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl, and the Gators whacked the Buckeyes, 41-14, to win the BCS championship. No wonder the Big Ten was lobbying for a rematch.

Seriously, is this a joke of a system or what? The coaches poll, which is one-third of BCS formula, has Oklahoma, with two losses, ranked ahead of one-loss Brigham Young. One of the Sooners' losses came to the Cougars. No wonder the coaches don't want their votes made public.

If things go according to plan, the BCS Guru will be updating his standings each Saturday from here on out, and the Wiz will be posting the results. Be sure to check the Wiz late Saturday night to stay a step ahead of the competition.

Can Brigham Young Make It to the BCS Title Game?

Let's forget this one-game-at-a-time mentality and look at the big picture. Is Brigham Young, from a lowly non-Bowl Championship Conference, now in position for the big party prize — a berth to the BCS title game Jan. 7 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena?

The first release of the BCS standings won't come until next month, but that's simply too long to wait. This question requires an immediate answer, and thankfully there is Sam Chi, aka the BCS Guru.

Sam's first simulated BCS standings put BYU at No. 8 and within striking distance of the top two spots that earn berths to the BCS title game.

Granted, there is a lot of football to be played, but that could be a good thing for the Cougars. BYU's schedule is manageable and teams ahead of it must face the meat of their schedules. This essentially will allow the Cougars to be drafting for much of the season while the big boys crash into each other.

When It Comes to the BCS, Money Talks, B.S. Walks

No wonder half the college football world refuses to take the Western Athletic and Mountain West conferences seriously.

On the table Wednesday was the Bowl Championship Series' new four-year deal with ESPN, which will pay roughly $500 million for television, radio and digital rights to BCS games beginning after the 2010 regular season. Even if none of their teams made it to a BCS game, the WAC and Mountain West each could get about $11 million over the life of the deal, which in reality amounts to table scraps.

By refusing to agree to the deal, WAC and Mountain West teams would not have been allowed to participate in the five BCS games and would not have been eligible for a cut of the yearly $125 million payment. But credibility often comes with a price, and the leagues would have gained considerable clout in their fight to change the system by saying no.

Instead, they decided to take the money and run.

"The repercussions were just too dramatic and too costly," Boise State president Bob Kustra said. "Can you really take that chance?"

The answer is yes, you take that chance.

Will the WAC and Mountain West Say No to the BCS?

We're about to find out how serious the Western Athletic and Mountain West conferences are in bringing about change to the Bowl Championship Series.

Utah Senator Orrin Hatch held a hearing Tuesday into possible antitrust violations by the BCS, but the attention now turns to the 18 presidents of WAC and Mountain West schools. Brian Murphy of the Idaho Statesman reports that the presidents must decide by Thursday afternoon whether to sign a new agreement between the BCS and television partner ESPN that goes into effect after the 2010 regular season and runs for four years.

The WAC and Mountain West are the only Division I-A conferences that have not signed the deal. If they don't sign, the leagues risk millions in hopes of changing the system to improve access and payouts for their schools.

"There are really two choices: not signing it at all or signing it with a statement saying we're signing it under duress," Boise State president Bob Kustra said.

Ha! It's Not About the Money, It's About the Bowls!

Utah's Orrin Hatch, the ranking member of the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee, has scheduled a hearing Tuesday to examine antitrust violations by the Bowl Championship Series, a multi-billion dollar industry that attempts to exclude teams from non-BCS leagues in big-money bowl games.

Hatch's quest to bring a playoff system to big-time college football is a Herculean task. Consider comments made by Harvey Perlman, left, the chancellor at the University of Nebraska who was recently appointed as chairman of the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee. He was asked by Husker Locker why a playoff is not a viable alternative. Here is Perlman's response:

"It would diminish the bowl structure and it would reduce the number of opportunities for student-athletes to play in the postseason and that's not a good thing. If you look at college football now, it’s the greatest sporting event spread over September, October, November, December and a little bit of January that the country has. A playoff would seriously diminish the regular season, as it has in college basketball.

Air Force's Calhoun Unloads on BCS

A day after the Bowl Championship Series Presidential Oversight Committee slammed the door on the Mountain West Conference's plan for an eight-team playoff, Air Force coach Troy Calhoun ripped the system designed to exclude non-BCS teams from lucrative top-tier bowl games.

"We basically have a system for college football that too closely resembles the old Soviet Presidium," Calhoun said, referring to the policymaking and governing body of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

"You have a seven-member politburo that's decided if you aren't one of those party members, then you're unable to participate."

Calhoun was just getting started.