The Wiz of Odds

Academics Standing in Way of Playoff? Baloney!

Why no playoff in big-time college football? Talk to college presidents or chancellors — the people who have the ultimate say in the matter — and they'll tell you that a playoff would conflict with the academics of student-athletes.

If you believe that, I have land to sell you with a choice view of Chernobyl.

As Brent Schrotenboer of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes, many of the bowl games already cut deep into the academic calendar.

Twelve of the 14 teams playing in bowl games before Christmas had some kind of scheduling overlap with final exams and practices. Navy, which plays in Thursday's Poinsettia Bowl, had players practicing at 5:45 a.m. this week because final exams started at 7:55 a.m.

Brigham Young and Fresno State, which play Saturday in bowl games, had final exams Monday-Thursday of this week.

Bowl Championship Series title game participants Auburn and Oregon will have started their second semesters when they tee it up Jan. 10. Duck players will have missed a week of classes when the game starts.

BCS Guru: Will Ohio State Move Ahead of Wisconsin?

Update:The BCS Guru says he whiffed on Wisconsin and has written an apology with an explanation.

The formula is simple for Oregon and Auburn. Win and they're in the Bowl Championship Series title game on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz.

The Ducks play at Oregon State and Auburn plays South Carolina in Atlanta this Saturday. If either loses, undefeated Texas Christian is ready to take their spot. If both lose, all hell breaks loose.

The intrigue starts at No. 4, according to the BCS Guru. He projects that Stanford will be in the coveted No. 4 slot, which guarantees a BCS bowl spot. But get this: Ohio State could edge in front of Wisconsin for the No. 5 slot when the official standings are released Sunday night. Didn't Wisconsin beat Ohio State? How can this be?

The Guru writes: "LSU's loss (to Arkansas) made the Wisconsin-Ohio State race much closer, because the Tigers were wedged between these two teams in the polls. So close that the Guru is calling Ohio State to edge slightly in front. Keep in mind that the Big Ten will send the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings to the Rose Bowl, so this won't be decided until next week even though the Big Ten schedule is done."

Rounding out the Guru's top 10: No. 7 Arkansas, No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 LSU and No. 10 Oklahoma.

The next five: No. 11 Boise State, No. 12 Oklahoma State, No. 13 Nebraska, No. 14 Missouri and No. 15 Nevada.

That's three Big Ten teams in the top eight and no Big East team in the top 15. Connecticut, which lost to a second-division Big Ten team (Michigan) and a third-place team from the Mid-American East Division (Temple), is one win from a berth to a BCS game. As the Guru writes, "The Big East is committing grand larceny."

What about Boise State? The Broncos are the biggest losers, falling from a likely BCS game to either the Kraft Fight Hunger or Humanitarian Bowl. The likely opponent would be a 6-6 team.

BCS Guru: Boise State Putting the Heat on TCU

There will be no drama at the top when the Bowl Championship Series standings are released Sunday night, according to the BCS Guru. Oregon, Auburn and Texas Christian, which each had the week off, are expected to retain the top three spots.

However, No. 4 Boise State, winner of 24 consecutive games, will close the gap on the Horned Frogs. The Broncos made a strong case Friday night with a 51-0 victory over Fresno State.

If Boise State doesn't overtake TCU this week, it likely will happen next week. The Broncos play at Nevada, a top 25 team, while the Horned Frogs finish their regular season at lowly New Mexico.

Boise State also has another game to make an impression. It closes the regular season at home against Utah State on Dec. 4.

The No. 3 spot is key because should either Oregon or Auburn lose one of their last two games, the Broncos would likely earn a spot in the BCS title game on Jan. 10 at Glendale, Ariz.

Here are the remaining games for the top four teams:

Oregon: Arizona (Friday), at Oregon State (Dec. 4).
Auburn: at Alabama (Friday), South Carolina (Dec. 4, SEC title game in Atlanta).
TCU: at New Mexico (Saturday).
Boise State: at Nevada (Friday), Utah State (Dec. 4).

BCS Guru: This Week Looks a Lot Like Last Week

Don't expect any changes in the top 10 of this week's Bowl Championship Series standings, according to the BCS Guru.

While Oregon, Texas Christian and Stanford won close games, the results are not expected to impact their placement. However, it will cause an adjustment in margins.

Oregon, a 15-13 winner at California, is expected to maintain its No. 1 spot, with Auburn at No. 2. TCU, at No. 3, will likely lose ground to the top two teams, but not because of the Horned Frogs' closer-than-expected 40-35 victory over San Diego State, which is rated reasonably high in the computer rankings.

What will hurt TCU is Notre Dame's 28-3 victory over Utah.

Boise State will hold on to the No. 4 spot, followed by Louisiana State.

Stanford struggled to a 17-13 victory over Arizona State, but is expected to remain No. 6, ahead of Wisconsin, which buried Indiana, 83-20.

Closing out the top 10: Nebraska, Ohio State and Oklahoma State.

The remaining games for the top four teams:

Oregon: Arizona (Nov. 26), at Oregon State (Dec. 4).
Auburn: at Alabama (Nov. 26), South Carolina (Dec. 4, SEC title game in Atlanta).
TCU: at New Mexico (Nov. 27).
Boise State: Fresno State (Friday), at Nevada (Nov. 26), Utah State (Dec. 4).

Undefeated TCU, Boise State Out of BCS Title Party?

So long Alabama. See ya Utah. Nice to know you Oklahoma. It was Shakedown Saturday in the Bowl Championship Series standings.

The Crimson Tide, Utes and Sooners all saw their title hopes come to a crushing end and according to the BCS Guru, at least one undefeated team could be left out of the title game.

The Guru projects that Oregon, Auburn, Texas Christian and Boise State will occupy the top four spots in the BCS standings when they are released Sunday night. There's a strong possibility that all four could end up undefeated.

Here are the remaining games for those teams: 

Oregon: at California, Arizona, at Oregon State.
Auburn: Georgia, at Alabama, SEC title game.
TCU: San Diego State, at New Mexico.
Boise State: at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State.

The top one-loss team in Sunday's standings will be Louisiana State at No. 5, according to the Guru. Then comes Wisconsin, Nebraska, Stanford, Ohio State and Michigan State.

The rest of the top 15: Oklahoma State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa and Missouri.

The Guru projects the following BCS matchups:

BCS title game: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl: TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh

Bettors: Oregon, Alabama Will Play in BCS Title Game

Oregon and Alabama are favored by bettors to play in the 2011 Bowl Championship Series title game on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz., according to odds posted at Bodog.com.

The undefeated Ducks, featuring Heisman candidate LaMichael James, right, are listed as 17/10 to win the title game at the time of this post.

Alabama is 3/1. Bettors are counting on the one-loss Crimson Tide to go undefeated through the rest of the regular season, including Saturday's game at Louisiana State and the Nov. 26 Iron Bowl against rival Auburn.

Boise State is listed at 4/1, with Auburn fourth at 9/2. Then comes Texas Christian (15/2), Nebraska (25/1), Utah (25/1) and Ohio State (30/1).

Utah and TCU play Saturday in what essentially is a BCS elimination game.

The rest of the list: Oklahoma (50/1); Wisconsin (55/1); LSU (100/1); Missouri (125/1) and Michigan State (150/1).

Thanks to Image of Sport.