The Wiz of Odds

In the End, There's No Payoff in a Playoff

By John Witzke

There was much celebration late last month in college football. A supposed cure had been found for what ails the sport.

In 2014, the Bowl Championship Series is being unceremoniously ushered out, much to the delight of millions. Replacing it will be the long-awaited playoff, which will consist of four teams chosen by a selection committee.

That's where the problems begin.

Unfortunately, we all know the reality of the situation. It's only a matter of time before four is expanded to eight and eight is expanded to 16. The TV networks, flashing the almighty dollar, will eventually get their way. They always do.

It's going to be sad — almost tragic, actually — to watch the one-time Greatest Regular Season In All Of Sports being reduced to a March Madness format.

The hardcore fans like you and I will still be there every glorious Saturday in the fall, but the casual majority will be gone until the playoff rolls around.

Then the masses will show up in late December or early January and fill out their brackets while pretending they gave a damn about the regular season.

How disheartening.

What They Are Saying About the Four-Team Playoff

Tuesday's announcement that big-time college football would institute a four-team playoff beginning in 2014 was met mostly with cheers. But not everybody was celebrating the death of the Bowl Championship Series. Here is a sampling of opinions from around the country.

Dan Wetzel, Yahoo! The BCS finally has a stake driven through its heart, but bowl games and big bucks still reign.

Tom Shatel, Omaha World-Herald: Tuesday was all about the old guard going away.

Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports.com: Playoff criticism isn't a popular topic at the moment, but the little players have to wonder if they'll ever matter again.

David Teel, Newport News Daily Press: A playoff is something even Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Sonia Sotomayor could agree on.

Bryan Burwell, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: It was a great day for people who hate the BCS.

Mike Herndon, Mobile Press-Register: The death of the BCS ensures there won't be another 2004 Auburn. Or does it?

Alabama-LSU BCS Title Gets Low TV Rating

Editor's note: Story has been updated to reflect final ratings after initial overnight ratings.

Monday night's Bowl Championship Series title game between Alabama and Louisiana State was the third-lowest rated title game in the 14-year history of the BCS.

The ESPN telecast drew a 14 rating. The only BCS games with lower ratings were the 2005 USC-Oklahoma matchup, which got a 13.7, and the 2002 Miami-Nebraska game, which had a 13.8.

Ratings were down 8% from the 2011 title game between Auburn and Oregon.

Monday's telecast had regional appeal, with seven of the top 10 metered markets having a Southeastern Conference footprint, according to the overnight numbers. Birmingham topped the list with a 61.2, followed by New Orleans at 53.3.

Then the ratings took a steep drop, with Oklahoma City (29.1), Minneapolis-St. Paul (27.5), Atlanta (26.8), Memphis (25.8), Knoxville (25.5), Greenville (24.5), Jacksonville (23) and Austin (20.5) completing the top 10.

The Mother of All BCS Title Game Prediction Posts

Which team will win Monday night's Bowl Championship title game between Louisiana State and Alabama? For the fifth year in a row, the Wiz went to distinguished members of the news media and blogging community for the answer. Opinions vary, but nearly everyone agrees that one of these teams will actually score a touchdown in this Rematch of the Century.

At the bottom of the post, readers are invited to vote in two polls. The first asks which team will cover the spread. At the time of this post, Alabama is favored by 1.5 points. The second asks if the total number of points will go over or under 40.5.

Let's get to it (Twitter feeds are linked off names):

Larry Brown of Larry Brown Sports: Bama 20, LSU 17. Even though they lost, Bama appeared to be the better team in the first meeting between the squads. It moved the ball slightly better than LSU and lost because it couldn't make a field goal. I don't think LSU will get that lucky this time.

Yost of the Michigan blog M Zone: 'Bama 21, LSU 17. I just think it's going to be too hard for LSU to beat 'Bama twice in a season. Plus, unbeknownst to LSU, Nick Saban has probably signed 42 additional players since the end of the regular season.

The Complete List of BCS Title Game Odds

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren't the only ones breaking down Monday night's Bowl Championship Series title game between Louisiana State and Alabama. After the jump is the complete list of odds from Bovada, everything from which team will win the coin toss to total number of interceptions thrown by Alabama's A.J. McCarron.

Rematch of Century? How About Probation Bowl?

You can't spell cheaters without S-E-C.

No doubt one of the forgotten items in the hypefest leading to the Jan. 9 Bowl Championship Series title game will be that the participants are both on probation.

That's right, Louisiana State and Alabama are proof that it pays to cheat.

Eric Crawford of the Louisville Courier-Journal writes, "Somehow, it seems fitting to me that this scandal-filled year in college football should end with two teams on NCAA probation playing for the national title."

LSU's transgressions centered on former assistant D.J. McCarthy, who improperly arranged for transportation and housing for former defensive lineman Akiem Hicks in 2009 before later trying to cover it up.