The Wiz of Odds

Clock Rules and NASCAR Commercials

We're in a two-minute offense as we try to catch up before the start of bowl season. Here's a look at how the 40/25-second clock rules impacted the final two weeks of the regular season and how the previous three seasons compare to 2008, thanks to Marty Couvillon of the indispensable cfbstats.com, the ultimate site for college football stats junkies. Go there and check it out.

The average length of a game has been shortened by 12 minutes and the number of plays is down 8.69 from 2007. Scoring has also decreased by 2.59 points a game.

To refresh, the Football Rules Committee has been trying to shorten the length of games. In 2006, the controversial 3-2-5e rule drastically cut the length of games, but also reduced plays and scoring to unacceptable levels. The rule was tossed out for the 2007 season, and scoring and points surpassed the 2005 levels. So did the length of games.

Scoring Passes 2005 Average

In 2005, the season before the Football Rules Committee started messing with the clock rules, an average of 52.61 points were scored in a game. Scoring in 2008, played under the 40/25 clock rules, has surpassed the 2005 average, according to data provided by Marty Couvillon of the fabulous cfbstats.com.

There are 5.99 less plays a game from 2005, but why hasn't offensive output suffered? A educated guess is that the number of teams running the spread offense has increased and teams running the spread stack their best players on that side of the ball. The result is that defenses tend not to have the depth they had in 2005.

Lack of depth tends to show later in the season as players get bruised and battered. The 2008 points per game would seem to indicate defenses breaking down later in the season. Two weeks ago, the points per game stood at 52.32. That number has risen .30 in two weeks when 98 of the 712 total games have been played.

Marty's weekly look at the average number of plays and time of a game for the past four seasons, plus the Week 13 numbers:         

             G      Plays/G   Time/G   Pts/G
2005     717    140.71      3:21      52.61
2006     792    127.53      3:07      47.53
2007     792    143.42      3:23      55.37
2008     712    134.72      3:11      52.62
Wk 13     48    136.08      3:11      55.52

The longest games of Week 13:
Boise State-Nevada: 3:43
Ball State-Central Michigan: 3:36
Texas Tech-Oklahoma: 3:34
Texas El Paso-Houston: 3:31
Nevada Las Vegas-San Diego State: 3:28
Mississippi-Louisiana State: 3:28
Fresno State-San Jose State: 3:21

The shortest games of Week 13:
Northern Illinois-Kent State: 2:34
Air Force-Texas Christian: 2:37
Tulane-Tulsa: 2:48
Central Florida-Memphis: 2:50
Oregon State-Arizona: 2:53
Illinois-Northwestern: 2:55
North Texas-Middle Tennessee State: 2:59

Will Committee Seek to Trim More Time Off Games?

Marty Couvillion of the terrific cfbstats.com, who has been conducting a season-long study of the impact of the 40/25 second clock rules, believes the new rules are here to stay, "maybe with slight tweaking."

Marty writes: "If you compare this year to 2005 (before they started tinkering with the rules), they've lost 6.09 plays and 10 minutes per game. I think they (the rules committee) will take that, especially since there has been little public outcry about the rules, at least nothing like 2006. The thing we don't know is the target Time/G that the rules committee wants to get to — is 3:11 good enough or do they want it to be lower?"

One other note: There were 169 plays in the Troy-Louisiana State game, tying the third-highest number of plays in a game this season. LSU rallied from a 28-point deficit in the third quarter to win, 40-31. That is the third-largest rally for a victory since the 2005 season.

Marty's weekly look at the average number of plays and time of a game for the past four seasons, plus the Week 12 numbers:         

             G      Plays/G   Time/G   Pts/G
2005     717    140.71      3:21      52.61
2006     792    127.53      3:07      47.53
2007     792    143.42      3:23      55.37
2008     664    134.62      3:11      52.41
Wk 12     50    134.92      3:12      53.44

The longest games of Week 12:
Buffalo-Akron: 4:06
Troy-Louisiana State: 3:43
Minnesota-Wisconsin: 3:40
Rutgers-South Florida: 3:35
Wake Forest-North Carolina State: 3:35
Tulsa-Houston: 3:30
South Carolina-Florida: 3:29
Notre Dame-Navy: 3:25

The shortest games of Week 12:
Alabama Birmingham-Tulane: 2:40
Washington State-Arizona State: 2:45
New Mexico-Colorado State: 2:49
Louisiana Monroe-Mississippi: 2:50
Texas A&M-Baylor: 2:53
Utah State-Louisiana Tech: 2:54
Ball State-Miami (Ohio): 2:54

The Numbers Game

The weekly check on how the 40/25 clock rules are impacting the length of games. As always, this information comes from Marty Couvillion of cfbstats.com, the ultimate site for college football stats junkies. Check it out.

Plays per game and points per game were down slightly from Week 10, but the time of games held steady. With about 80% of the season having been completed, there won't be any dramatic shift in the data.

Oklahoma, which has been among the leaders in plays per game, makes another appearance on the list of longest games of the week. Another CBS telecast — Alabama at Louisiana State — is at the top of the list of longest games. Clearly, CBS stands for the Commercial Broadcasting System.

Last but not least, some good news for Volunteer fans. The shortest game of the week was Wyoming at Tennessee.

Marty's weekly look at the average number of plays and time of a game for the past four seasons, plus the Week 11 numbers:         

             G      Plays/G   Time/G   Pts/G
2005     717    140.71      3:21      52.61
2006     792    127.53      3:07      47.53
2007     792    143.42      3:23      55.37
2008     614    134.59      3:11      52.32
Wk 11     55    134.38      3:12      51.09

The longest games of Week 11:
Alabama-Louisiana State: 3:49
Clemson-Florida State: 3:48
Tulane-Houston: 3:45
Oklahoma-Texas A&M: 3:43
Nevada-Fresno State: 3:36
North Carolina State-Duke: 3:35
Cincinnati-West Virginia: 3:35
Marshall-East Carolina: 3:30

The shortest games of Week 11:
Wyoming-Tennessee: 2:38
Colorado State-Air Force: 2:42
Louisiana Tech-San Jose State: 2:45
Bowling Green-Ohio: 2:47
Arizona-Washington State: 2:51
Southern Mississippi-Central Florida: 2:52
Ohio State-Northwestern: 2:53

Time, Plays and Points All on the Rise

Anybody complaining about the length of the Texas-Texas Tech game? It was the third-longest game of Week 10, according to Marty Couvillion of cfbstats.com.

The 3:38 contest at Lubbock, regarded at the most entertaining game thus far in 2008, helped drive up the numbers in Week 10, including the all-important average number of plays a game. It was 135.54, second only to Week 7's 136.35.

Week 10 also had the season's highest time per game (3:15) and points per game (56.34).

Marty's weekly look at the average number of plays and time of a game for the past four seasons, plus the Week 10 numbers:         

             G      Plays/G   Time/G
2005     717    140.71      3:21
2006     792    127.53      3:07
2007     792    143.43      3:23
2008     509    134.62      3:11
Wk 10     50    135.54      3:15

The longest games of Week 10:
Pittsburgh-Notre Dame: 4:01
North Texas-Western Kentucky: 3:46
Texas-Texas Tech: 3:38
Temple-Navy: 3:36
Oregon-California: 3:35
Wisconsin-Michigan State: 3:34
Rice-Texas El Paso: 3:30
Tulsa-Arkansas: 3:30

The shortest games of Week 10:
Arkansas State-Alabama: 2:42
San Jose State-Idaho: 2:52
Washington-USC: 2:53
Tulane-Louisiana State: 2:53
Alabama Birmingham-Southern Mississippi: 2:54
Kent State-Bowling Green: 2:57
Washington State-Stanford: 2:57

The 40/25 Clock's Impact on Scoring

What's the scoop on scoring? With the number of plays reduced in 2008 by 6.22% — likely from the 40/25 second clock rules — scoring has decreased by 5.97%, according to Marty Couvillion of cfbstats.com.

The Football Rules Committee's tinkering with clock rules has had a yo-yo effect on scoring the past four seasons. In 2005, the average number of points in a game was 52.61. In 2006, the 3-2-5e rule drastically reduced plays and times of games. It also cut scoring to 47.53.

In 2007, 3-2-5e was abolished and scoring skyrocketed to 55.37. So did the number of plays and length of games.

That brings us to 2008, with scoring standing at 52.06, nearly matching the 2005 levels. An interesting note: The number of plays are down 6.21 from 2005, meaning teams are doing more with less in 2008.

Marty's weekly look at the average number of plays and time of a game for the past four seasons, plus the Week 9 numbers. Another note: Oklahoma was involved in the longest game of the week, which is the third time the Sooners have garnered such honors (weeks 1, 8 and 9):         

             G      Plays/G   Time/G
2005     717    140.71      3:21
2006     792    127.53      3:07
2007     792    143.43      3:23
2008     509    134.50      3:10
Wk 9      49    133.32      3:08

The longest games of Week 9:
Oklahoma-Kansas State: 3:43
Cincinnati-Connecticut: 3:37
Boise State-San Jose State: 3:35
Georgia-Louisiana State: 3:35
UCLA-California: 3:33
Baylor-Nebraska: 3:30
Rutgers-Pittsburgh: 3:27
Nevada-Hawaii: 3:23

The shortest games of Week 9:
New Mexico-Air Force: 2:39
Bowling Green-Northern Illinois: 2:42
Wyoming-Texas Christian: 2:43
Southern Methodist-Navy: 2:43
Rice-Tulane: 2:51
Auburn-West Virginia: 2:52
New Mexico State-Idaho: 2:53