The Wiz of Odds

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatch in college football. Considering the increasing number of Bowl Championship Series teams scheduling games against cupcake opponents, Mike's task is more challenging than trying to organize a family picnic involving members of the Oregon and Boise State teams.

There's so much Weakness in the opening week of the 2009 college season that you'd think swine flu set in long ago, at least in the offices of athletic directors across the nation.
 
With almost everyone in I-A playing nonconference games in Week 1, rare is the region spared by a hideous mismatch. For instance:
 
Louisiana Monroe (which now apparently goes by the snappy handle of ULM) is at Texas.
North Dakota is at Texas Tech.
Towson visits Northwestern.
Jacksonville State is at Georgia Tech.
Northern Colorado meets Kansas.
 
Ugh, times five. But our initial Game of the Weak in 2009 is one our dear Wiz wrote about earlier this month, Charleston Southern at Florida.
 
The Wiz noted USA Today "oddsmaker" Danny Sheridan put a line on that game. Sheridan said the Gators were 73-point favorites.
 
In the history of Nevada sportsbooks, it's fair to say no football team has ever really been a 73-point favorite, not even last year's Detroit Lions.

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatches in college football. Considering the number of Bowl Championship Series teams tanking at this point in the season, Mike's task is more challenging than getting presidential pardons on Thanksgiving turkeys revoked.

There was a time in which the annual Colorado-Nebraska game on the day after Thanksgiving meant something.

Meant a lot, really.

The last time was 2001. The Buffaloes shocked the 11-0 Cornhuskers in Boulder, 62-36, to steal away the Big 12 North’s spot in the league’s title game. Nebraska still had enough BCS points built up to go to the national-title contest, where it got humbled by Miami in Pasadena.

Not that other CU-NU games haven’t mattered since, but not in good ways.  In 2005, Colorado got drilled by the Huskers, 30-3, to throw away the Big 12 North title. But Iowa State choked at Kansas the next day, putting the Buffaloes in the Big 12 title game the next week. That wasn’t a blessing. Colorado lost to Texas, 70-3.

Last year, Colorado upended Nebraska, 65-51, to finish the regular-season 6-6 and become bowl-eligible. They liked that in Boulder. But the Buffs lost to  Alabama in an Independence Bowl clash of 6-6 squads, and had a losing season.

That 2001 season was the last time either Colorado or Nebraska went to a BCS bowl. Both programs have optimism under coaches Dan Hawkins and Bo Pelini, and maybe one or the other will get back in the habit of playing in January bowls that mean something. But this year, they are again afterthoughts on the national scene.

Colorado is 5-6 and needs to win in Lincoln to get to, yes, the fabulous Independence Bowl for a second consecutive year. The good people of Shreveport-Bossier probably have their fingers crossed that the Huskers do the right thing and put the Buffs out of their misery so the Indy Bowl people won’t have a Big 12 team foisted upon them. Then they can invite Louisiana Tech or Louisiana Lafayette or Louisiana Anybody and actually sell a few tickets.

Nebraska is 7-4, a bit of a renaissance after last year’s 5-7 debacle that included a 76-39 loss at Kansas. But the Huskers don’t have a signature win this season and appear headed to the Alamo Bowl for the third time in six years to play a Big Ten team. Nebraska is 3-0 in the Alamo Bowl, so it has that going for it.

The Huskers also have the sting of a 52-17 loss at home to Missouri, and a 62-28 pounding at Oklahoma. These still are not your father’s Cornhuskers. And Colorado-Nebraska still isn’t what it used to be.

Don’t spend your day after Thanksgiving watching this game. Save up your Big 12 football energy for Saturday night when Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State. The Big 12 does still have some very good teams.

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatches in college football. Considering the number of Bowl Championship Series teams tanking at this point in the season, Mike's task is more challenging than trying to get a six-pack at 4 a.m. in Salt Lake City.

This isn’t just the Game of the Weak. This is the Game of the Weak of the Year.

The tension has been growing for several weeks. Both teams have peaked for this moment in time. It’s loser-take-all. Washington State plays at Washington. The winner can go off and hide. The loser claims the bottom of the major-college heap.

They call their rivalry the Apple Cup. It’s the 101st meeting. Try to find one in the first 100 that rivals this for desperation and despair. Washington State is 1-10 overall, 0-8 in the Pacific 10 Conference. It has a win because it had the foresight to schedule a I-AA opponent it could beat, Portland State.

Because it plays at Hawaii next Saturday, WSU gets a 13th game this year. This wasn’t the best season for the Cougars to play an extra game, but at least it gets a trip to Honolulu as a reward for beating Portland State.

Washington is 0-10, 0-7 in the Pac-10. After Saturday’s game, it waits two weeks to close the dismal Tyrone Willingham era with a game at California. That means the Huskies’ season will have been extended across five months, and UW will have lost in each of them.

There are 119 Division I-A teams. Washington is 117th in total offense, Washington State 118th. Pick virtually any statistic and the results are similar. Washington is 119th in tackles for losses. Washington State is 119th in turnover margin. They’re probably 118th and 119th, respectively, in unpopped kernels in their stadium popcorn.

Neither has come closer than 20 points of winning a game since September. Seattle has a 2-8 NFL team in the Seahawks, a 101-game baseball loser in the Mariners and lost its NBA team to Oklahoma. Somehow, Washington’s two I-A football teams have managed to slither under those low standards.

These aren’t two programs that have always been lost causes. Washington was once the Pac-10’s premier program. It began this decade with an 11-1 season capped by a Rose Bowl triumph. That was the last of the Huskies’ 14 Rose Bowl appearances. Washington has 15 Pac-10 titles. It won a share of the national title in 1991 after going 12-0 and clobbering Michigan in Pasadena.

Washington State doesn’t have that kind of history, but has been to four Rose Bowls. The Cougars won 10 games in 2001, 2002 and 2003, and were in the Rose Bowl six seasons ago.

It’s tough to win in Pullman, but it has been done before. The present, however, is as gray as a typical Seattle winter day. Someone’s going to win Saturday. The only question is how.

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatches in college football. Considering the number of Bowl Championship Series teams tanking at this point in the season, Mike's task is more challenging than getting a 7 p.m. flight out of Chicago that has been delayed to 8:30 to leave by 10:15.

You could understand if traditional football power Clemson and traditional football footwipe Duke had the same record after one game of the college football season. Maybe Duke had beaten a I-AA team in Week 1 and both were 1-0.

But after nine games?

"It is crazy, to tell you the truth, when you look at our record and their record being the same," Clemson receiver Aaron Kelly said.

Duke is 4-5. Clemson is 4-5. They clash Saturday at Clemson in the national Game of the Weak. This is done with no disrespect whatsoever to Duke, which deserves praise and not scorn for elevating its performance this season after years of being lost in the tall trees of Raleigh-Durham. The Blue Devils were 5-42 over their previous four seasons.

David Cutcliffe has done a masterful job in his first season as Duke’s coach, guiding the team to two ACC victories that includes a win over Virginia. The Blue Devils have also downed Navy and Vanderbilt, no small feats this year.

Clemson, on the other hand, is a wreck. It was the preseason favorite of many to win the ACC, but the Tigers are a sad 1-4 in league play.

Darkness descended on Death Valley as soon as the season started. The Tigers opened in Atlanta against Alabama and didn’t compete. Bama won, 34-10, and Clemson never recovered. It won its next three games, yes, but two were against I-AA opposition. After losses to Maryland and Wake Forest, coach Tommy Bowden was ousted.

It was Bowden’s 10th season, and none of them produced losing records. But none of them produced ACC titles, either, and Clemson people had their fill of him. Clemson’s last three bowls were the 2005 Champs Sports, the 2006 Music City, and the 2007 Chick-fil-A. Hardly the stuff of an elite program.

Usually when a coach gets sacked, his players rue the unfairness of it all. Not Clemson senior quarterback Cullen Harper.

"I'd call it karma," Harper said. "I thought it needed to be done. I think anytime a head coach or someone in a leadership position starts to place blame on his coaches and players, it weakens their respect on the team. His past experiences have shown he's done that."

Bowden got paid for the rest of this season and will get a $3.5 million buyout to boot. Cutcliffe is an ACC Coach of the Year candidate for a team that is 1-4 in the conference.

College football is crazy.

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatches in college football. Considering the number of Bowl Championship Series teams tanking at this point in the season, Mike's task is more challenging than getting a tattoo while riding a llama.

Tennessee and Wyoming don’t have much in common other than they’re red states — which means they were on the losing side Tuesday night.

Heck, they’ve been on the losing side all this football season.

Saturday in a stadium with seating for over 104,000, two programs in decline meet to decide ... not much. The Wyoming Cowboys  are crossing much of the nation for a date with the Tennessee Volunteers. They aren’t natural rivals, but a look at the statistics tells us they are blood brothers. Or, rather, bloodied brothers.

Both are 3-6. Both are 1-5 in their conferences. Tennessee is 114th out of the 119 I-A teams in scoring offense. Wyoming is 119th.

Both have seen better days, especially the Vols. They won 10 games in three of the previous five seasons, including last year. Coach Phil Fulmer entered this season with 102 more wins at the school than losses. This was a genuine national football power.

But this week, Fulmer had one of those "resignations" that happen to coaches who are enduring bad times. It's funny how you can "resign" and still get a $6 million buyout.  Sounds like one of those Wall Street deals.

Ten years ago, Fulmer’s Vols went 13-0 and won the national championship. This year he has a team that has been held under 10 points on three occasions. That hasn’t played well in Knoxville. Farewell, Phil.

"It's hard to understand ... I guess it's what have you done for me lately," Wyoming Coach Joe Glenn said of Fulmer's impending departure. "He coached that team to a national championship and 150 wins. In this day and age, it's hard to win nine or 10 games every year. There are a lot of scholarships out there and everybody has them."

Glenn may want to worry about his own situation. Until they beat hapless San Diego State, 35-10 last Saturday, the Cowboys had lost five games in a row by a combined 207-30. After guiding Wyoming to a Las Vegas Bowl win over UCLA in 2004, this will be the Cowboys' fourth non-winning season in a row under Glenn.

What have you done for Wyoming lately, Coach Glenn? Not much. When you have the pregame chit-chat with Fulmer Saturday, you may want to get some buyout advice for future reference.

Game of the Weak

Mike Hlas is an award-winning columnist with the Cedar Rapids Gazette and force behind The Hlog. Each week he will break down the biggest mismatches in college football. Considering the increasing number of Bowl Championship Series teams tanking at this point in the season, Mike's task is more challenging than trying to get Joe the Plumber to show at a campaign rally.

The Motor City Bowl had a dream.

Finally, Michigan's football team had enough of the wrong stuff to have a 6-6 season and drop all the way in the Big Ten's bowl pecking order to its last affiliation, the fabulous Motor City Bowl on Dec. 26 in downtown Detroit.

"We'd love to have them," Motor City Bowl founder and CEO George Perles said last week. That was three days before the Wolverines played Michigan State in Ann Arbor, three days before the team Perles coached for 12 seasons beat Michigan, 35-21.

Now Michigan is 2-6, and needs to sweep its final four games to get to 6-6 and play against a Mid-American Conference team at Ford Field. It won't happen.

Why? Because the Wolverines still have to play Ohio State. And Minnesota. And Northwestern.

And, oh yeah, Purdue. Michigan is at Purdue Saturday in a previously inconceivable meeting of 2-6 teams with the two worst scoring offenses in the Big Ten.

That's right. Purdue and Michigan. Bad teams. Bad offenses. Bad, bad, bad season.

Michigan has lost at home to Utah and Toledo. Had that happened while Bo Schembechler was coaching the Wolverines, he'd have made them run all the way from Ann Arbor to the Upper Peninsula and back.

Michigan shoved Lloyd Carr out the door because the Wolverines just couldn't quite get over some imaginary hurdle while he was coach. His offense was stale, his personality bland. You don't know what you've got till it's gone.

Oh, for the days of Carr and winning Big Ten titles. The first Rich Rodriguez season has been an abject disaster. His spread offense has been spread into mulch so far. Michigan is averaging a league-low 18.9 points per game. Last year it averaged 27.2 points.

Purdue, which has lost five straight to the Wolverines, is doing no gloating. Had Joe Tiller known what kind of send-off his Boilermakers would have given him this year, he'd have joined Carr in retirement last winter.

The Boilers went to bowls in 10 of Tiller's first 11 seasons as coach. But his squad has dropped from 34.3 points a game last season to 20.3 points this year. It has one win against a I-A foe, and that was a 32-25 decision over Central Michigan.

Purdue has scored six points or less in three of its last four games. That is Purdue. The home of Tiller's basketball on grass. The offense that revolutionized offense in the Big Ten and made defensive coordinators cuckoo. The attack that spawned NFL quarterbacks Drew Brees and Kyle Orton.

Now it's a team playing out the string for a coach playing out the string.

The loser of this game is out of Motor City Bowl contention, while the winner gets another week or two to consider the possibility before succumbing to a losing season.

Look elsewhere, George Perles. Look toward Evanston. Northwestern could lose its four remaining games to finish 6-6 and bring 66 fans to Detroit the day after Christmas.

Which reminds us: The Game of the Weak for Dec. 26 is already set, no matter the matchup.